By Emeka Alex Duru, PhD—
Parts of the headline and substance of my discussion in the piece titled “How Democracy Dies in Nigeria,” published on 3 November 2023, were informed by a 2018 publication by Harvard University political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, titled ‘How Democracies Die’. The uncertain developments in the country ahead of the 2027 elections make it compelling to revisit the thesis and lessons of the book.
The work studies how leaders can subvert the democratic process to increase their power, including truncating the processes and institutions through which they attained it. The book advocates for mutual tolerance and respect for the political legitimacy of the opposition, which includes accepting the results of free and fair elections where the ruling party loses. The authors also stress the importance of respecting the opinions of those with different orientations.
They advise against the denial of legitimacy to opponents, a tactic used by ruling parties to portray their rivals as criminals, subversive, unpatriotic, or threats to national security or the existing way of life. In their words: “Democracies may die at the hands not of generals but of elected leaders – presidents or prime ministers who subvert the very process that brought them to power.”
Levitsky and Ziblatt use the metaphor of a soccer game to illustrate how autocrats subtly undermine national institutions to achieve their desires. In this scenario, power mongers compromise referees, sideline key players from the opposition, and rewrite the rules of the game to secure their advantage. The institutions that are most readily targeted include the judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and other regulatory bodies, which are ordinarily meant to serve as neutral arbiters and guardrails of democracy. “Capturing the referees provides the government with more than a shield,” the authors note.
Current trends in Nigeria’s democratic experiments echo the scenarios described in the book. In the frenzy to realise his second term ambitions, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are increasingly disregarding caution, acting in ways that suggest a lack of decency and decorum. The President has virtually undermined all the institutions of democracy in the country, trampling over opponents as if he is the lord of the manor before whom other Nigerians must prostrate.
At public functions, his campaign jingle, “On your mandate we shall stand,” attracts more applause than the national anthem. Rather than serving the people, all his efforts are directed towards his potential return in 2027, possibly without an election.
For Tinubu and the APC to prevail, the opposition must be rendered irrelevant, allowing for massive electoral rigging at both state and national levels. The latest engineered crisis within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) points to the dangerous direction the administration is heading. On Tuesday, 1 April, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the removal of the names of the ADC’s National Working Committee (NWC), led by David Mark, from its official portal, explaining that this action was in compliance with a Court of Appeal order.
According to the commission, the appellate court had, in a judgement delivered on 12 March 2026, directed all parties to maintain the existing situation before a dispute arose and refrain from actions that could prejudice the outcome of a substantive suit before the Federal High Court in Abuja. This decision followed a leadership crisis within the ADC, with rival factions led by Nafiu Bala Gombe and Mark claiming to lead the party.
If one takes the matter at face value, it might seem that INEC is abiding by the rule of law. However, this is a ruse. The INEC under Prof Joash Amupitan increasingly demonstrates that it is a carryover from the odious Mahmood Yakubu era, reading the signals and serving the interests of the President and the ruling party. According to INEC’s revised schedule for the elections, political parties must fix dates for their primaries between 23 April and 30 May 2026. The ADC had already set its National Convention for 14 April before this obvious distraction from INEC. With the commission declining to recognise its leadership, the party’s plans and programmes may be jeopardised.
his is how the unending crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) began. In all these instances, the unseen hand of the government looms large. It is clear that Nafiu Bala Gombe is playing the role of spoiler and undertaker within the ADC. The Minister for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is undertaking a similar task in destabilising the PDP, while Julius Abure is perceived as the government’s mole in the LP. The entire plot is to ensure Tinubu’s return for a second term without contest.
Since the agenda has become all-consuming, everything has been introduced into the mix, including cajoling and coercing members of the opposition to defect to the APC. The ruling party currently has 32 out of the 36 governors in the country but remains unsure of the outcome of a free and fair election next year.
Of course, there would be nothing wrong if the APC, into which these politicians are being pushed, were demonstrating internal democracy and good governance. Unfortunately, that is not the case. In fact, the situation is so dire that whatever ills Nigerians encountered or complained about during the 16 years of the PDP from 1999 to 2015 have multiplied under Tinubu and the APC. This poses a grave threat to Nigeria’s democracy.
Democracy grants the people the right to choose their leaders and enjoy freedom of association. This freedom is expressed in the formation and membership of political parties and organisations. Since 1999, Nigerians have enjoyed that right, affording them the opportunity to belong to political parties of their choice and aspire to leadership positions in the country. Tinubu’s APC benefitted from that right when it was registered in 2014.
Democracy thrives in an atmosphere of a multi-party system. Democracy without opposition is antithetical and invites civilian autocracy. Opposition political parties are essential to democracy, providing a measure against which the actions of ruling parties are evaluated. The parties in power need criticism from the opposition to remain vigilant and provide good governance to the people.
Regrettably, after twenty-seven years of practising democracy, rather than widening the frontiers of the system and consolidating gains, Nigeria is at risk of drifting towards a one-party state, a major feature of President Tinubu’s re-election agenda. This ambition is characterised by desperation.
President Tinubu and his associates must not be allowed to continue down this troubling path, which poses dangers to Nigeria’s democracy. The opposition must be allowed to thrive. Any attempts to weaken the opposition should be resisted by Nigerians through all legitimate means. Weakening the opposition has led many African countries into serious crises that continue to haunt them. Nigerians must rise to ensure that the President’s obvious antics to push the country into a one-party state because of his second term bid do not succeed.
Progress is good